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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|